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World-building to 2050

Narrative Intelligence and the Architecture of Plausible Futures Orbis Futura Review — Essay #11 Epistemic status: Speculative. What follows is…

41 min read
Detecting What Doesn’t Want to Be Seen

A modelling framework for detection architectures across emerging disruptive technologies, with hypersonic threat detection as the primary worked case. Applied…

1 min read
Inverse Intelligence

AI capability assessment measures what AI can do, not what it changes about how we know. The inverse intelligence framework…

1 min read
Article 42.6: A Modern Frame

Article 42.6 of the Treaty on European Union offers a better fit for non-attributable and autonomous-warfare scenarios than NATO’s Article…

1 min read
The Money Shapes the Frontier

Commercial-off-the-shelf simulation tools are increasingly used in defence applications they were not designed for. A peer-reviewed methodology for evaluating COTS…

1 min read
COTS Under Stress

Commercial-off-the-shelf simulation tools are increasingly used in defence applications they were not designed for. A peer-reviewed methodology for evaluating COTS…

1 min read
The Boomerang

Assistance and sanctions both produce unintended innovation effects. From the Dawes Plan to Iran’s Hormuz doctrine, the pattern is general….

1 min read
Primes, Pretenders and the New Geographies

Three structurally different markets — US, European, CRINK — are producing three different defence-tech ecosystems. Any analysis treating “defence innovation”…

1 min read
Where the Future is Being Built

The Geography of Research as a Leading Indicator of Geopolitical Power EPISTEMIC LABEL:  PROBABLE   I. The Argument: Geography Outperforms…

29 min read
The Soviet Equation

What sits in today’s open literature, dismissed, the way Ufimtsev’s math once sat in a Soviet drawer? Epistemic label: SPECULATIVE….

16 min read
Endless Frontier, Edited Forward

  “Basic research is the pacemaker of technological progress.” — Vannevar Bush, Science, the Endless Frontier, 1945[^bush1945] Overarching epistemic status:…

46 min read